NAB brings forward RBA rate cut prediction

National Australia Bank has moved forward its prediction of a Reserve Bank cash rate cut to February, three months earlier than it previously forecast.

NAB had been an outlier among the big four banks, sticking with its May 2025 forecast for the RBA's to first cut the cash rate since interest rates began rising in May 2022.

But this week NAB revised its outlook based on a "shifting balance of risks". It now joins Westpac and ANZ in forecasting a February 2025 rate cut while Australia's largest bank, Commonwealth Bank, is sticking with December 2024.

The big four banks' cash rate forecasts are as follows:

Bank	Cut Expected	Number of Cuts	End Cash Rate Forecast
CBA	December 2024	5	3.10%
Wesrtpac	February 2025	4	3.35%
ANZ	February 2025	3	3.60%
NAB	February 2025	5	3.10%

The RBA will be looking to its preferred quarterly trimmed mean inflation figure, which excludes volatile or one-off items. The next quarterly CPI data is due on 30 October, the week before the RBA's next meeting.

The next RBA decision on the cash rate is scheduled to be delivered on Tuesday 5 November, Melbourne Cup Day.

Fixed rates have been gradually moving lower for several months now. Most recently a 2 year fixed rate of 5.39% confirming the direction for rates is definitely downwards. Don't hesitate to call me if you have any questions about how the latest movement in interest rates might assist with your mortgage or that property purchase you've been considering.